The 10-year notes are likely to bottom now and to rally into the second half of July. This appears to be a rally in a bear market.
The June Cycles Research report stated that…”Notes are likely to drift up into the 11th and then to fall sharply into the 25th.” “From June 16-25, notes have risen in only 19% of cases since 1982. There is a strong PTP on the 11th, and this will likely be the top. The next PTP is on the 25th, likely the low.”
Notes topped on the 11th and thus far have bottomed on the 25th. Readers are likely curious as to how this was accomplished. All the predictive techniques lined up:
The monthly cycle was falling
The seasonal cycle predicted a weak period in June
The daily and the weekly cycles were falling
The PTPs confirmed the cycle projections.
Currently, there are several conditions that point to higher prices. First is the price level. The last decline retraced 38.2% (131.6) of the 2018-2020 rally. The 131.6 level was the downside target which was reached in April. This placed a temporary floor on the decline. This is still true. Note how that level is still containing the decline.
Next, we see that the seasonality is improving and that the weekly cycle is bottoming. The strong July (up 57%) -August (up 63%) months commence.
Monthly Expected Return- US 10-Year Notes
MORE FOR YOU
This cycle bottoms 6th. The buy signals have been 67% accurate over the last year.